Airbus on Monday, July 15 revised up its 20-year demand forecast for jetliners. Many airlines are modernizing long-haul fleets and Asia’s surging economies unlock new potential markets.
The world’s largest planemaker predicted in an annual report on jet industry trends that the global fleet would more than double over the next two decades, reaching 48,230 planes.
Over the next 20 years, the report expects that there will be industry-wide deliveries of 42,430 new airplanes, including 41,490 passenger jets. The numbers are both up 4 percent from the previous survey.
The range and performance of single-aisle planes has steadily improved, and markets previously served by bigger planes were transformed as a consequence, Airbus found.
The report comes as the planemaker’s long-distance, single-aisle A321XLR is expected to win certification in coming days. Boeing is developing a longer-range version of its 737 MAX.
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After a prolonged lull, demand for larger wide-body planes is accelerating sharply as airlines renew capacity, and the most significant changes in Airbus’ forecast affect the long-haul fleet.
Airbus revised up its total wide-body demand forecast by 9 percent to 8,920 units, led by double-digit increases in South America and North America.
For the Middle East, one of the largest markets in the world, Airbus trimmed its forecast by 2 percent amid reports of overcapacity.
Demand in the busier segment for single-aisle passenger planes like the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 series, which have a short to medium range, was revised up by 3 percent to 33,510 units.
The planemaker’s predictions draw on economic forecasts suggesting 1.7 billion people will join the middle class and consequently be able to afford air travel in the next 20 years.
Bob Lange, head of market analysis and forecasts at Airbus, said: “We see particularly strong growth in Asia and the Middle East, led particularly by India and China.”
“Domestic China [traffic] will overtake the U.S.,” he added.
India is another fast-growing market, being among the top three, that was highlighted in the report. The world’s most populous nation and its neighbors on the Indian subcontinent are together home to nearly 2 billion people combined.
But forecasts of a rebound in growth in aviation following the pandemic have put the industry at odds with environmental groups that challenge its record on tackling climate change.
Airbus argued the delivery of new jets and the development of greener fuels would contribute to lower emissions.
Reuters contributed to this report.
